In 2009, all industries are facing a severe situation, the solar energy industry also failed to avoid a global recession and financial market shocks. Although the situation may improve in 2010, but it will not be smooth.
Return to growth in demand track, but profit seen rising.
iSuppli forecasts that by 2010 the global installed capacity of PV systems to grow by 68% to 8.6GW. This means that, as the weakening global economic downturn, and more demand for the region and the field, the photovoltaic market growth rate will return to 2008 levels before the crisis. However, prices have fallen sharply in 2009. Shown in Figure 1, the average price of crystalline silicon components decreased by 38%, solar single-chip prices down 50%, with sharp declines in the spot price of polysilicon 80%. , iSuppli believes that this represents a permanent decline in the price, the PV industry will become highly competitive market, the weak out, leaving only a few companies occupy a larger market share.
The main revelation is that the industry’s manufacturers will need to continue to accelerate cost-cutting efforts to keep up with the pace of price declines, continued margin compression to adapt to the situation. Figure 2 shows the polysilicon, the battery / component manufacturers, and at least four nodes in the integrated industry chain manufacturers operating margin situation.
iSuppli’s analysis showed that, following the loss of most of 2009, the company returned to profitability in the fourth quarter. Profitability in 2010 will continue to improve, but it will not rise to the level before the recession. iSuppli forecasts that the photovoltaic industry average profit margin in most areas will be the fourth quarter of 2010 rose to 10%. However, areas of excess supply of polysilicon will fall behind the pace of losses.
Driving cost reduction program to improve the profitability of the main factors is the speed to catch up with prices.
PV system prices will not fall as fast as component prices
In 2009, the average price of PV systems decreased by 11%, while the average price of crystalline silicon components fell by 38%. iSuppli predicts that the price of PV systems in 2010 will drop 10%, component prices dropped 20% Qiangzai. Three factors seem to lead to such a price difference between the rate of decline. One is the equilibrium (BOS) components and installation of associated costs, namely, engineering, procurement and construction (EPC), declined more slowly. Another reason is that the dispersion characteristics and installation business, leading to cost savings initiative is not strong. The third reason and the second related to a matter of national projects to encourage solar power to provide preferential policies, such as the preferential long-term purchase price (FIT), discounts and tax incentives, these factors help system prices remain at more high. The last point is concerned with the project developers and system installers need to demonstrate an attractive return on investment the owner (ROI) and payback period will be able to get the business, do not offer the lowest price.
FIT lead to uncertainty
Germany is the world’s largest solar power countries, and now the country’s solar energy industry there is plenty of uncertainty. Like Spain in 2008 to practice, may further reduce the threat of FIT has led to the German market demand for PV systems. Germany in 2009 estimated that total global market, the overall installed capacity of PV systems to 50%.
Increase in the number of firms
In 2010 there will be more enterprises to enter the photovoltaic industry with other industries, they want to give them a potential competitive advantage. The most prominent is the Samsung and LG Electronics, which is the largest shareholder of LG Displays. They have the world’s largest LCD panel manufacturer, and is the world’s TV, mobile phones and home appliances manufacturers.
LCD panel production, and production of solar panels have many similarities. Both involved in multi-layer films deposited polysilicon and other materials, large glass substrates. These enterprises to reduce costs, improve quality and expand the volume a wealth of experience. These enterprises can take advantage of the glass, wafers, polysilicon, and manufacturing equipment procurement to benefit. These enterprises are also good access to existing areas, and eventually occupied these areas.
Excess capacity, not to find out the changing patterns
Although the PV industry has done well in reducing inventory, but no significant improvement in the situation, because the utilization of existing capacity fluctuations. As industry demand caused by the existence FIT Foam – is the latest example of the German market, it is difficult to plan effectively. Indeed, the market is now being absorbed by the component supply, but years ago, industry could once again flooded with excess supply.
From the polysilicon to the component, the enterprise has passed the idle production lines and reduce the frequency of reduced production. iSuppli estimates that all nodes in 2009, the average capacity utilization was 70%. Some companies products out of stock throughout the year, and some enterprises have a surplus of products. In addition, many manufacturers in 2009 to expand the production capacity. How to calculate the yield on the existence of great controversy, iSuppli Corporation is defined as seven days a week, 24 hours a day have been installed production line / equipment. iSuppli Corporation, that in 2010 or close to production capacity surplus will continue to excessive prices were flat.
China, the United States and Italy will become the battleground vendors
For 2010, iSuppli predicts that the growth of several market Dah Sing battleground will be the vendors. The most prominent is China, the United States and Italy, iSuppli predicts that in 2010 they together account for 50% of incremental market. Germany will remain the largest market, but the importance of these countries will continue to rise. China is a late comer, eager to increase renewable energy proportion of their total energy. In these markets, strategic positioning in the enterprise, are now facing in the coming years to seize the largest share of opportunities. Some companies are using EMS providers to produce components, to minimize capital investment and based on the localization. SunPower’s relationship with Jabil Circuit is an example of this.
Fought in the downstream industry chain manufacturers
iSuppli Corporation that began in 2009 continued the trend of more companies in the photovoltaic industry will be closer to the user, in order to increase the value of photovoltaic power generation customers. PV supply chain companies are directly investing in solar power plants and development of long-term ownership and control of EPC (design – Procurement – Construction), or installation services. Key examples include the acquisition of SunEdison MEMC and China’s LDK Solar to invest in wind farms. Conergy shift from supply chain re-developer for the project. Focus on the benefits of a variety of downstream operations, including creating a more developed and sales channels, develop their own clients, and some also can improve profitability.
China, the United States and Italy will become the battleground vendors
Posted by admin in News
In 2009, all industries are facing a severe situation, the solar energy industry also failed to avoid a global recession and financial market shocks. Although the situation may improve in 2010, but it will not be smooth.
Return to growth in demand track, but profit seen rising.
iSuppli forecasts that by 2010 the global installed capacity of PV systems to grow by 68% to 8.6GW. This means that, as the weakening global economic downturn, and more demand for the region and the field, the photovoltaic market growth rate will return to 2008 levels before the crisis. However, prices have fallen sharply in 2009. Shown in Figure 1, the average price of crystalline silicon components decreased by 38%, solar single-chip prices down 50%, with sharp declines in the spot price of polysilicon 80%. , iSuppli believes that this represents a permanent decline in the price, the PV industry will become highly competitive market, the weak out, leaving only a few companies occupy a larger market share.
The main revelation is that the industry’s manufacturers will need to continue to accelerate cost-cutting efforts to keep up with the pace of price declines, continued margin compression to adapt to the situation. Figure 2 shows the polysilicon, the battery / component manufacturers, and at least four nodes in the integrated industry chain manufacturers operating margin situation.
iSuppli’s analysis showed that, following the loss of most of 2009, the company returned to profitability in the fourth quarter. Profitability in 2010 will continue to improve, but it will not rise to the level before the recession. iSuppli forecasts that the photovoltaic industry average profit margin in most areas will be the fourth quarter of 2010 rose to 10%. However, areas of excess supply of polysilicon will fall behind the pace of losses.
Driving cost reduction program to improve the profitability of the main factors is the speed to catch up with prices.
PV system prices will not fall as fast as component prices
In 2009, the average price of PV systems decreased by 11%, while the average price of crystalline silicon components fell by 38%. iSuppli predicts that the price of PV systems in 2010 will drop 10%, component prices dropped 20% Qiangzai. Three factors seem to lead to such a price difference between the rate of decline. One is the equilibrium (BOS) components and installation of associated costs, namely, engineering, procurement and construction (EPC), declined more slowly. Another reason is that the dispersion characteristics and installation business, leading to cost savings initiative is not strong. The third reason and the second related to a matter of national projects to encourage solar power to provide preferential policies, such as the preferential long-term purchase price (FIT), discounts and tax incentives, these factors help system prices remain at more high. The last point is concerned with the project developers and system installers need to demonstrate an attractive return on investment the owner (ROI) and payback period will be able to get the business, do not offer the lowest price.
FIT lead to uncertainty
Germany is the world’s largest solar power countries, and now the country’s solar energy industry there is plenty of uncertainty. Like Spain in 2008 to practice, may further reduce the threat of FIT has led to the German market demand for PV systems. Germany in 2009 estimated that total global market, the overall installed capacity of PV systems to 50%.
Increase in the number of firms
In 2010 there will be more enterprises to enter the photovoltaic industry with other industries, they want to give them a potential competitive advantage. The most prominent is the Samsung and LG Electronics, which is the largest shareholder of LG Displays. They have the world’s largest LCD panel manufacturer, and is the world’s TV, mobile phones and home appliances manufacturers.
LCD panel production, and production of solar panels have many similarities. Both involved in multi-layer films deposited polysilicon and other materials, large glass substrates. These enterprises to reduce costs, improve quality and expand the volume a wealth of experience. These enterprises can take advantage of the glass, wafers, polysilicon, and manufacturing equipment procurement to benefit. These enterprises are also good access to existing areas, and eventually occupied these areas.
Excess capacity, not to find out the changing patterns
Although the PV industry has done well in reducing inventory, but no significant improvement in the situation, because the utilization of existing capacity fluctuations. As industry demand caused by the existence FIT Foam – is the latest example of the German market, it is difficult to plan effectively. Indeed, the market is now being absorbed by the component supply, but years ago, industry could once again flooded with excess supply.
From the polysilicon to the component, the enterprise has passed the idle production lines and reduce the frequency of reduced production. iSuppli estimates that all nodes in 2009, the average capacity utilization was 70%. Some companies products out of stock throughout the year, and some enterprises have a surplus of products. In addition, many manufacturers in 2009 to expand the production capacity. How to calculate the yield on the existence of great controversy, iSuppli Corporation is defined as seven days a week, 24 hours a day have been installed production line / equipment. iSuppli Corporation, that in 2010 or close to production capacity surplus will continue to excessive prices were flat.
China, the United States and Italy will become the battleground vendors
For 2010, iSuppli predicts that the growth of several market Dah Sing battleground will be the vendors. The most prominent is China, the United States and Italy, iSuppli predicts that in 2010 they together account for 50% of incremental market. Germany will remain the largest market, but the importance of these countries will continue to rise. China is a late comer, eager to increase renewable energy proportion of their total energy. In these markets, strategic positioning in the enterprise, are now facing in the coming years to seize the largest share of opportunities. Some companies are using EMS providers to produce components, to minimize capital investment and based on the localization. SunPower’s relationship with Jabil Circuit is an example of this.
Fought in the downstream industry chain manufacturers
iSuppli Corporation that began in 2009 continued the trend of more companies in the photovoltaic industry will be closer to the user, in order to increase the value of photovoltaic power generation customers. PV supply chain companies are directly investing in solar power plants and development of long-term ownership and control of EPC (design – Procurement – Construction), or installation services. Key examples include the acquisition of SunEdison MEMC and China’s LDK Solar to invest in wind farms. Conergy shift from supply chain re-developer for the project. Focus on the benefits of a variety of downstream operations, including creating a more developed and sales channels, develop their own clients, and some also can improve profitability.